A trial reports a p-value of 0.03 for the effect of a drug. What is the correct interpretation?
Answer and explanation
Correct answer: B. If there were no true effect, results this extreme would occur in about 3 percent of studies
- Step 1: A p-value is the probability of data at least this extreme if the null hypothesis is true. Step 2. It does not give the probability that the hypothesis is true or the size of the effect. Answer: If there were no true effect, results this extreme would occur in about 3 percent of studies. Why not the others: The 97 percent chance and the 3 percent null probability both treat the p-value as a probability about the hypothesis. The percentage of responders is unrelated.
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