A lottery player states: 'My numbers have not been drawn in the last twenty weeks; therefore, they are virtually guaranteed to win tonight.' Which fallacy is evident?
Answer and explanation
Correct answer: B. Gambler's fallacy assuming past trials alter independent odds
- Step 1: Lottery drawings are statistically independent events with identical odds on every single draw. Believing that past non-occurrences somehow increase the likelihood of future independent random outcomes is the gambler's fallacy. Answer: Gambler's fallacy assuming past trials alter independent odds. Why not the others: "Hasty generalization logic" involves drawing broad conclusions from an unrepresentative or small sample; "Fallacy of composition" erroneously attributes characteristics of parts to the overarching whole; "Straw man exaggeration" caricatures an opponent's argument to make it easier to knock down.
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