Using Bayes' theorem for the screws in the previous problem, if a randomly chosen screw is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was produced by Machine 1?
Answer and explanation
Correct answer: D.
- Step 1: By Bayes' theorem, . **Answer: . Why not the others:** is the probability that it came from Machine 2, assumes equal production and defect rates, and is the prior production share of Machine 1.
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