A city transit authority reported that after adding 50 new bus lanes, average commute times across the city decreased by 12 minutes. The mayor concluded that creating bus lanes is an effective strategy for reducing traffic congestion throughout the metropolis. Which of the following, if true, most seriously WEAKENS the mayor's conclusion?

Answer and explanation

Correct answer: B. A major highway expansion opened simultaneously

  1. Step 1: Identify the conclusion: Adding bus lanes caused the reduction in city-wide commute times.
  2. Step 2: Identify the underlying causal assumption: The reduction in commute times was not caused by an external confounding factor.
  3. Step 3: A statement that introduces an alternative plausible explanation for the reduction in commute times directly undermines the causal attribution to the bus lanes.
  4. Step 4: If a major highway expansion diverted large volumes of cars at the exact same time, that alternative event accounts for the drop in congestion.
Answer
A major highway expansion opened simultaneously
Why not the others: Budget overruns concern fiscal management, not whether the lanes reduced congestion; increased bus ridership supports the policy; suburban awareness is irrelevant to measured municipal transit speeds.

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