Which of the following is NOT one of the features of careful counterfactuals that the author lists?
Counterfactual history, the speculation about what would have happened if some event had gone differently, is sometimes dismissed as a parlour game. The dismissal is too quick. Every claim that an event caused another contains an implicit counterfactual: to say that a policy led to a famine is to say that without it the famine would not have occurred, or would have been less severe. The question is whether such judgements are made carefully or carelessly. Careful counterfactuals are disciplined: they change as little as possible, they stay within what contemporaries thought possible, and they are honest about uncertainty. They cannot tell us what would have happened, but they can show how much weight an alleged cause can bear.
Answer and explanation
Correct answer: C. They predict the long-term future with confidence
- Step 1: The passage lists changing as little as possible, staying within contemporary possibilities and honesty about uncertainty.
- Step 2: It says they cannot tell us what would have happened, so confident prediction is not a feature.
Answer
They predict the long-term future with confidence.
Why not the others: Changing as little as possible, staying within contemporary possibility, honesty about uncertainty and showing how much weight a cause can bear are all features the author lists; confident long-term prediction is not.
Practise more History and chance.
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